States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organised crime, with it proving too adaptable and too resilient to be seriously affected. This monograph it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organised crime, helping to situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context. It goes on to propose ‘A Framework for Analysis and Action’, adapted from a framework for tackling irregular warfare, to guide the analysis and planning of those who are charged with responding to the challenge of organised crime.

David H Ucko & Thomas A. Marks

(NDU Press)

July 2025

Who benefits from Russia's occupation of Ukraine? Russia's economic activities in the occupied territories are characterised by widespread corruption and profiteering off billions spent without accountability and illicit seizures of Ukrainian businesses, many of which may be war crimes. These activities create new networks and bolster vested interests, often linked to Russian security services.

Olivia Allison, David Lewis

May 2025

Contrary to initial expectations, Colombia’s Total Peace Policy have not progressed as quickly or effectively as anticipated, leading to the unintended consequence of increasing armed and criminal groups capacity to govern the territories involved in negotiations, prompting some to think the policy is strengthening both rebels and criminals. This new research paper explores the argument and demonstrates that this trajectory is not generic: it depends on the armed and criminal actors, and the specific areas and the populations involved. Through comparison of negotiations’ in three regions, the paper explores not only which aspects of life are governed, but also how they are governed.

Kyle Johnson, Felipe Botero, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, and Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

Drawing on the findings of two new research papers from the SOC ACE research project, “Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia’s Total Peace” this briefing note explains how implementation of Colombia’s Total Peace Policy provides important lessons and implications for policymakers and scholars in organised crime, conflict resolution and negotiations, and peacebuilding; in particular: the need to understand the evolving nature of violence; the importance of coordinating between local and national authorities; appropriation of the concept of “hybrid political orders”; and the importance of timing and sequencing in negotiations.

Felipe Botero, Juanita Durán, Kyle Johnson, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

This new research paper explores the institutional architecture of Colombia’s Total Peace Policy, (“Paz Total”) answering two key questions: 1) what is the Policy’s institutional context, and 2) how is it being implemented by the negotiating groups. The research examines implications of the Policy’s degree of centralisation, as well as the expectations and actual involvement of local authorities and the robustness of it’s legal framework.

Juanita Durán

March 2025

Drawing on the findings of two new research papers from the SOC ACE research project, “Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia’s Total Peace”, this briefing note summarises lessons for negotiating with criminal groups found through fieldwork in three regions of Colombia – Buenaventura, Arauca and Tumaco. The note focuses on two critical issues that emerge in contexts where rebel and criminal governance coexist with formal institutions.

Felipe Botero, Juanita Durán, Kyle Johnson, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

From the combination of traditional intelligence tradecraft with new technologies, attempts to innovate, a willingness to take greater risks, and a growing willingness to contract out activities to both licit and illicit non-state actors – especially organised crime groups, this research shows there is much that is new about the rising tide of hostile activities perpetrated by state actors and their partners; state threats.  

This paper offers firmer definitional boundaries of state threats, and within them, explores the scale, scope and characteristics of their modern manifestation, especially - but not exclusively - from a Western perspective. It shows that many hostile activities are taking advantage of the new vulnerabilities in society, such as social media and societal reliance on technology, and that state threats have become more important as tools of policy due to “geopolitical climate change”, including perceived changes in global power balances and receding agreement on international norms of behaviour.

The paper concludes that whilst evidence suggests the results of these kinds of activities are mixed, they remain an attractive form of coercive statecraft in the medium term, and that if sustained over the long term, could have more severe effects on open societies that have robust protections in place.

Matthew Redhead (RUSI)

January 2025

This briefing note offers insights on how novel approaches to measuring less visible organised crime activities such as extortion, and using the data to inform better diagnostic of the problem and develop more effective response interventions, can support the building of political will to tackle organised crime. The briefing note draws on the work done by the research team as part of Medellín Impact Lab, demonstrating how new data on extortion has led to increased political will to address the issue in the city, and Colombia more widely.

Professor Christopher Blattman, Dr Benjamin Lessing, Professor Santiago Tobón

January 2025

This briefing note provides insights on how novel approaches to measurement of less visible organised crime activities such as extortion, can be used to better diagnose problems and develop, test and iterate more effective response interventions. It offers an overview of how new data on extortion has been utilised as part of a cross-sector, collaborative Impact Lab approach to tackle the pervasive issue of organised crime groups’ extortion in Medellin.

Professor Christopher Blattman, Dr Benjamin Lessing, Professor Santiago Tobón

January 2025

This paper evaluates the evidence on the use of reward programmes for whistleblowers who report economic crimes, evaluating it against the key concerns in the debate surrounding the implementation of such schemes. It offers four observations for policymakers considering use of whistleblower rewards programmes in the fight against economic crime.

Eliza Lockhart

December 2024