An absence of peace, a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
In this synthesis paper, Matthew Redhead builds on his most recent research paper, Old wine, new bottles: The challenge of state threats, to produce a forensic and provocative discussion of how state threats are conceptualised by policymakers and practitioners.
Describing the evolution of strategic thinking in China, the USA, Russia and Australia concerning hybrid warfare, ‘grey zone’ and intelligence conflicts, he shows where these ideas overlap, where they diverge, and where there are contradictions and gaps.
He then turns to the UK’s current definition and categorisation of ‘state threats’, comparing these to the EU’s and NATO’s equivalent ‘hybrid threats’, and considers Canada’s, the Netherlands’ and Australia’s definitions as case studies.
Matthew then offers a synthesis and pragmatic reconciliation of the prevalent elements, drawing up a ‘working model’ with four definitional core criteria. These are, the threat’s severity in falling short of a ‘war-threshold’, the source of the threat as being state-encouraged or enacted by either state or non-state actors, the character of the threat as underhand and undermining or in abusing rules and norms, and the threat’s motivation or intentionality.
Matthew concludes with five observations for future policymaking, arguing that:
The traditional peace/war dichotomy may be redundant, with actors such as Russia and China testing its limits vertically and horizontally.
Definitions must be clear but flexible.
Access to intelligence and expertise must be shared between allies, and domestic siloisation should be avoided.
A proportionate, ethical and legal toolkit of policy responses could be created that goes beyond resilience measures alone.
Matthew concludes with a call to vigilance to evolving threats arising from existing dependencies and emerging vulnerabilities.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats
Matthew Redhead, (RUSI)
Information Manipulation and Organised Crime: Examining the nexus
Dr Tena Prelec, (University of Rijeka)
New dynamics in illicit finance and Russian foreign policy
Professor David Lewis & Dr Tena Prelec
Exploring the threat of Chinese Professional Money Laundering Organisations (PMLO)
Kathryn Westmore (RUSI)